As the probability of her victory dropped throughout the night, her chances went down until eventually, it swung toward Donald Trump having 95 percent chance of winning. Gauges arent very popular in visualization, but they have some interesting properties. The NYT election needle debuted in 2016, an election cycle in which sophisticated modeling of opinion polls (which went mainstream in 2012) had become so accepted that it seemed totally reasonable. The New York Times election needle was offline for about an hour during Tuesday night’s midterms due to what a leading staffer says was a coding error. on Election Night, the needle had Hillary Clinton's probability of winning at 85 percent based off pre-election polls.

According to The New York Times, the needle 'predicts the outcome of an election based on incoming results, prior election results and demographic data.'Īt 7:30 p.m. Some background first: In the waning days of the 2016 election, The New York Times' Upshot team used a graphic 'needle' to predict the outcome of the race. Another election example is Matthew Kay's Presidential Plinko 6. Live updates: Pennsylvania special election New York Times Election Needle, which used a shaking needle gauge to highlight.During the Pennsylvania special congressional election, the needle went down entirely, causing a storm of tweets. Pennsylvania congressional district candidates neck-and-neck until the very end 01:59įor political watchers on Twitter on election days, following The New York Times election 'needle' is an addiction - before it's then derided for swinging too wildly or simply being wrong. Jon Ossoff, Democrat, wins the Senate runoff election in Georgia.

Nytimes election needles